You Underestimated Boko Haram?!

You Underestimated Boko Haram?!

First of all, it must be noted that, ideally, any government seeking reelection will be judged based on its performance. It would not be voted back if the people perceive that such a government has not done sufficiently well, whereas being returned would be a statement of approval of the government’s performance by the people. That is the ideal situation, and any society that does not strive in the direction of the ideal is doomed, no matter how anyone wants to look at it.

An election period, therefore, such as we are in, is an opportunity to review the performance of such a government seeking reelection. Its loss at the polls is largely more a statement to the effect that the people are not satisfied with the government’s performance than it necessarily is that they love the government’s opponent. Put conversely, there’s realistically no victory at the polls; what exists is actually a loss. Thus, it presupposes that we must continue to examine this government, led by Goodluck Jonathan and PDP, to see whether or not it deserves Nigerians’ approval to continue.

When the APC presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, said, if voted into power, he would overcome Boko Haram in eight or so weeks many Nigerians did not take him seriously. I did not take him seriously. I saw his statement as the usual political campaign promises that are made and don’t get fulfilled. But with the reported successes that our armed forces have recorded in the about two weeks since the controversial postponement of the elections, I am now convinced that it is possible. Many Nigerians had in fact queried, rather cynically, how this government can achieve in six weeks what it could not achieve in five years.

This Monday past, I happened into an Al Jazeera news report in which President Jonathan said he and his team had underestimated Boko Haram. I perceived a certain hint of sarcasm in the way the way the president’s remarks were presented in the report; or was it my uneasiness at his comment? I would later learn that that report was actually made on This Day newspaper, probably still on an image laundry trip concerning the real reasons for the postponement of the elections, when he fielded questions.

It was rather curious that the government will claim to have underestimated the insurgency. It is quite a ghastly comment by the Commander-in-Chief of the Nigerian armed forces and a self-indictment of the highest degree. Why else has security continued to constitute over one-fifth of annual budgets of this nation, the highest of all sectors, since 2011 to 2014? Put together, security alone has been allocated something in the neighbourhood of four trillion naira in the four years. You don’t allocate such humongous amounts to items you do not consider pressing enough.

Apart from the many bombings that the terrorists have tormented Nigerians with, what was the thinking of the government all the while about a group that would attack schools, kill lads, abduct girls, sack whole communities, hoist their flags on large swathes of land the size of some countries put together, thus, declaring a republic within such a government’s sovereign domain? What was the thinking of the government when some of its soldiers would refuse to mobilize against an enemy whom they said was better equipped than they? Why would a government underestimate an enemy when wives of soldiers, that are supposed to engage such an enemy, have loudly protested that their husband be not taken to the slaughter for lack of weapons? Why would a president and his team underestimate an enemy that the governor of an affected state has come out and told the world in no uncertain terms that the enemy is better motivated and equipped than the armed forces such a president supremely commands?

How have successive National Security Advisers, from the late Owoye Azazi through the resigned Mohammed Abdullahi to Sambo Dasuki now, advised the president that his government underestimated the enemy until now? What have his successive security chiefs been telling him? All of those batches of soldiers that were court-marshaled, with some sentenced to death, on various accounts, from mutiny to attack on their commanders; did this government seriously want Nigerians to believe that those were not pointers to have taken a closer look at the enemy all this while?

At least the earlier excuse bandied of the inability of government to procure weapons, due to admitted sanctions by the US, was more plausible; even though it would require a scandal involving Ayo Oritsejafor’s private jet for the government to admit its “dearth” of weapons despite soldiers’ and Gov Shettima’s hues earlier. But the excuse of underestimating Boko Haram? No!

Such comments from the president only serve to further pummel our already battered collective ego as Nigerians before the outside world. Thankfully, our soldiers have proven to us and the world, only within two weeks, that they have always been capable, if not for the entrenched political and moral rascality at various leadership quarters.

BLUEPRINT Newspaper; Thur. Feb 26, 2015; p2

Can Jonathan Rise Above Himself?

Can Jonathan Rise Above Himself?

I am afraid!

The signs are ominous.

When I set out to write last week’s piece, I had actually begun by stating the fact that it was ten days to the presidential elections but I also included a caveat that that was subject to how far the determined interests and voices calling for a postponement of the exercise were ready to go. The bit did not make it to the final piece because I overwrote, so it had to be expunged.

But what I have learnt from last Saturday is to take my hunches and instincts a bit more seriously, in spite of every evident fact and logic. I make this point because I was right in the hall of the National Reconciliation Committee meeting, chaired by Gen Abdulsalami Abubakar on Monday the 2^nd of February, 2015, when the security chiefs, including the Inspector General of Police, gave all assurances, as reported in newspapers, that they were set for elections, come February 14. Whatever it is that must have caused the security chiefs to review their position between Monday the 2^nd and Friday the 6^th, or even between Thursday the 5^th at the Council of States meeting and the very next day, must have been very serious and enough to cause trepidation among Nigerians.

Of course many Nigerians are not sold to the idea that the armed forces need the six-week postponement period in order to engage the Boko Haram insurgents and to recapture lost territories. The obvious fallacy of that has been stated: you cannot claim to want to do in six weeks what you have not been able to do in five years! If you are able to do it, then, all the while, you only prevaricated for some sinister ulterior motives, against the common good. If you are not able to do it, then it is clear that the postponement was to achieve something other than the stated. Head or tail, you are in a quagmire.

Moreover, resettling displaced people back in their villages is not a one-day thing. So even if the fourteen LGAs were recaptured from the terrorists, you cannot hope to bring back these people to their homes and for them to be able to take part in the polls all within six weeks. In any case they no longer have home because these have been looted and razed down.

The argument, therefore, that the postponement is a machination of the ruling party in order to gain time to possibly garner some more momentum is plausible; for TV in Nigeria have been aggressively awash with pro Jonathan/PDP campaign ads since last Sunday. The newspapers are not left behind: columns and op-eds either selling the Jonathan candidacy or just maligning the person of Buhari are having a field day. By the time you are reading this piece, the president would have held a media chat on the national broadcast stations. Talk about putting some six weeks to good use.

When Sambo Dasuki first flew the postponement kite, a friend quipped that that was simply to stretch the purse of the opposition. It seems to make sense. Add that to the suspicion that the ruling party intends to erect rigging structures using the security corps Ekiti-style. We are watching.

My trepidation is borne out of past events, which is why I wonder if the president can rise above himself and put Nigeria first. In 2010, when MEND ushered the first of this kind of bombing in Nigeria, he was quick to point fingers elsewhere, claiming, even after they owned up to it, that he knew MEND and they were incapable of the act – it was interesting that he would turned his own narrative on its head during his campaign inauguration in Lagos this year.

After the April 16, 2011 election, riots broke out across the north. The president would not address the nation to call for calm until the Thursday after; mind you the skirmishes began on that very election Saturday in Kaduna. That would be five days after; his opponent then, as now, who had no constitutional authority, called for calm via the BBC two days ahead of him.

All the while as the insurgency was raging and gathering momentum, the president never stepped foot in the north-east even after he declared the State of Emergency there. He would go to Maiduguri in May 2013, a week after a new party, APC, went and walked the streets there. The Chibok girls were abducted and he never said a word until after about three weeks following pressure from all over the world. Interestingly also, despite the heat of the insurgency, he went to Maiduguri twice during this electioneering.

Last year too, the former CBN governor got the boot, apparently for asking the wrong questions even though some other reason was given.

All of these, including the suspected reasons for the election postponement, seem to suggest that Jonathan seems to act and determinedly get his way when his considered interest is at stake.

Another kite is airborne, that Jega will not conduct the March 28 elections. There is no telling what danger that possibility portends. Even though INEC has refuted that, my hunch warns me. I only hope that, as determined as he is, the president can rise above himself.

BLUEPRINT Newspaper, Thur Feb. 12, 2015; p3

We the People!?

We the People!?

In April 2011, just before the general elections that year, I and three other Nigerians – Mr. Auwal Ibrahim Musa (Rafsanjani) of the Civil Soceity Legislative Advocacy Centre (CiSLAC), Dr Abubakar Momoh of the Political Science Department, Univrsity of Lagos, and Alh Farouk Dalhatu, a media proprietor – had the opportunity of observing elections of the state of Baden-Württemberg, Germany. That year, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) lost to the Green Party.

Until then, the CDU had been in power that state since the 1960s and was the ruling party at the federal level, as it still is presently. The state of Baden-Württemberg at that time was among the four states with the best economies globally, which is a testament to the fact that the CDU had done an exceedingly good job in the fifty odd years they held sway. In that state, there are companies like Daimler – makers of Mercedes Benz, Bosche and hundreds of others, many of which are small and medium scale. But, still, they lost and it was on account of one reason. Yes, a single reason; and one which was in far flung East-Asia which neither they nor the Asians themselves could have done anything about. It was nature’s “misbehavior”, what the lawyers call Force Majeure. It was the Fukushima earthquake of April 11, 2011, in Japan.

Before the quake, the debate had largely been about the educational direction of the state. The different parties were proposing their preferred policy options that they believed would serve the state’s future economic and sundry goal. There was also a debate at the national level about departing from nuclear to renewable energy but it was largely at the national level. The Green Party was all for it but so also the CDU. The only point of departure was on the timeline: the CDU was proposing a longer transition period. But the Fukushima event changed everything and focused the debate one what parties were offering on renewable energy. The people of the state decided to speak so as to send signals to the ruling CDU at the federal level on the path they wanted. They voted out the CDU and brought in the Greens. The people spoke.

Only one reason! And not because of non-performance!!

If your daughter or relative were one of those over two-hundred Chibok girls whisked away by Boko-Haram and the government never said a word until after about three weeks how will you vote on February 14? Think of that child of yours while you make up your mind. This question is not about insecurity or the inability of government to rescue the girls; for insurgency can confront any nation and even the most powerful nation may not be able to rescue such captives as the girls. It is a question of the sensitivity of the Nigerian government to its people. Three weeks before a word? No!

In a democracy, power belongs to the people. They donate this power to a few people at elections to help steer their affairs. But when such a group, in the form of a political party by whatever name, tells the nation that it will be in power for sixty years without demonstrating any regard for them by doing a good job, there is a big problem. The people must, as a matter of necessity and urgency, rise up and be heard.

What the 2015 elections portend for Nigerians is an opportunity to really decide what direction they want for this country. The most developed nations of this world have been able to get to where they are today because of good competition in their political space. Since 1999, we have realistically lived in a one-party state and that party in question has lost the nerve and incentive to be sensitive to the Nigerian people. There is nothing Nigerians will see if the party remains that we have not seen in the past sixteen years, except of course the worse. But the opportunity before us now is to send the party packing, because it will help them go and sit down and do some self examination, even if for only four years. They will think in terms of real issues and look for better persons to present. They will hopefully be remorseful. They will be a formidable opposition to the new party thereby putting the latter on their toes. If the latter do not perform well, we bring them back in; by which time the new party would have taken root as a formidable competitor.

Before now, the ruling party had never been this threatened. The problem is that if Nigerians let this opportunity to slip, this opposition will fritter and the arrogance and impunity of the ruling party will stink to the high heavens and then what we see now, bad as it is, will be child’s play.

I deliberately avoided naming parties and person here because in this situation, it could have been any person and any party. It is about a repugnant and reprehensible bind we find ourselves in. Presently, there are a thousand and one reasons and full culpability why we must demand something different and better.

We must reclaim our power. We, the people, must speak up and be heard.

 

BLUEPRINT Newspaper; Thur Feb. 5, 2015

Now that it’s Buhari…

 Now that it’s Buhari…

Last week, Thursday the 11^th of December, 2014, the All Progressive Congress (APC) in her primaries elected Gen Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) as her presidential candidate. In my piece of last week, I did look at the five aspirants and what they had to offer including the grey areas in their candidacy. I would like to quote what I said of a Buhari candidacy:

“The problem with Buhari, however, is that his political aspirations evoke very strong and polar emotions for various reasons he himself may have nothing to do with. He can actually beat the PDP and they are wary of that possibility and so they are ready to throw everything into the contest. Therefore, if he wins the APC primaries, we have to brace ourselves up for turbulent and acrimonious elections.”

For a Buhari, under APC, to be able to win in 2015, some serious acts of balancing have to be done. The label of a religious bigot has to be properly addressed, no matter how anyone wants to think that it doesn’t matter, because it matters. If feelers were anything to go by, that was a major factor that delayed the announcement of his running mate until yesterday afternoon when Prof Yomi Osinbajo was selected. But even that presents a problem because it was out in town that Bola Tinubu wanted it and now that he didn’t get it, the hope is that he will be a true party-man to the ticket in the south-west, because he matters, if not, doom awaits it. However, surely, religion matters in these things today in Nigeria and a Muslim-Muslim or a Christian-Christian ticket would pose a problem.

Another major factor is how the Northern Muslims will conduct themselves toward the coming election. If they see and flaunt Buhari’s candidacy as a northern or Muslim thing, then they surely will court the disaffection of others and that will be a kiss of death for that ticket. This is the time that every Nigerian must see himself and all other Nigerians as Nigerians and human beings enough. The APC, and Buhari himself, wants to work on this point sorely.

But surely, this Buhari candidacy is bound to bring with it some reasonable level of positive or negative excitement, depending on where one stands. The very fact that APC is a party that has also come to have a good spread across the country combined with Buhari’s own charisma is a potent reason enough to cause the ruling party to shudder. I stated last week thus:

“Gen Muhammadu Buhari brings with him a cult followership amongst the common people, especially in the north, as none other. But beyond that is the fact that his credential of personal integrity and discipline is unimpeachable. He is a person that, as president, should be able to inspire some level of fiscal responsibility and discipline especially within the civil service, which is the engine room of development in any state. Under him, many believe, corruption will shirk by itself and begin to give this country some breathing space. Internationally, many presume him to be able to attract the kind of respect that this nation deserves as he will not go cap in hand looking for validation from some other nation or leader. He should also be able to look in the eyes of these big countries and make only decisions that are in the best interest of Nigeria.”

One of the reasons for positive excitement is the need for a possible change in the leadership of the nation. Since 1999, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has been on the saddle of power in Nigeria and it is clear that it has squandered many fantastic opportunities to move this country forward. The disaffections across different lines are palpable. It appears the PDP has lost creativity as to what to do with the country, even though it has boasted that it is going to rule for sixty years non-stop. But with such kind of lethargy in political will and innovation, change is welcome.

The great thing about such party change in power is that it inspires competition by it very disposition. A very simple example is Kano State. Rabiu Kwankwaso was governor between 1999 and 2003; his performance then cannot be said to have been fantastic. In 2011 he came back to take over from his political archrival, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, who had beaten him in 2003. This time around, he was determined to out-perform his rival and even his own previous performance. The result is there for all to see; Kano state is a different place.

This is not an argument against a PDP or in support of some opposition in the mould of an APC. It is an argument for the incentive needed for political parties to wake up, knowing that the electorate can vote them out at anytime they perceive them as under-performing. The PDP’s boast of ruling endlessly and without matching it up with good performance is, at best, rude and haughty. If they lose power in 2015, even if for only four years, and they manage to come back in 2019, they will surely have learnt to take people’s mandate more seriously.

BLUEPRINT Newspaper; Dec. 18, 2014; p3.

2015: A Delicate Balancing Act.

2015: A Delicate Balancing Act.

By the time you are reading this article, the All Progressive Congress (APC) will have finished their presidential primary elections. There is no question that whoever emerges will slug it out with the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) President Goodluck Jonathan, with the entire arsenal available to the incumbent in an election as it were.

As it stands today, and if nothing changes, the 2015 elections fill many a Nigeria with a feeling of trepidation and foreboding due to the depths, as never before in recent times, of divisiveness across ethno-religious and regional lines, which have been further fuelled by the crises of insecurity in the northeast and the sheer rascality, opportunism and brinkmanship among politicians and their acolytes in the march to the elections. The piece today shall look at the five APC aspirants and what they can possibly bring to the table in the contest against a determined PDP, probably about to face the stiffest contest to the office of president since 1999.

Gen Muhammadu Buhari brings with him a cult followership amongst the common people, especially in the north, as none other. But beyond that is the fact that his credential of personal integrity and discipline is unimpeachable. He is a person that, as president, should be able to inspire some level of fiscal responsibility and discipline especially within the civil service, which is the engine room of development in any state. Under him, many believe, corruption will shirk by itself and begin to give this country some breathing space. Internationally, many presume him to be able to attract the kind of respect that this nation deserves as he will not go cap in hand looking for validation from some other nation or leader. He should also be able to look in the eyes of these big countries and make only decisions that are in the best interest of Nigeria.

The problem with Buhari, however, is that his political aspirations evoke very strong and polar emotions for various reasons he himself may have nothing to do with. He can actually beat the PDP and they are wary of that possibility and so they are ready to throw everything into the contest. Therefore, if he wins the APC primaries, we have to brace ourselves up for turbulent and acrimonious elections.

There is no single aspirant right now, both in the APC and PDP, with the kind of political structures and bridges across the length and breadth of this country as Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. He is the most experienced of all in politics and he has got some very deep pockets, a major factor in the political works of this nation. But apart from all that, he is able to attract the best minds from every corner of this nation to come and contribute in government if elected: he is credited as having brought some of the best hands that worked under Obasanjo. Like Buhari, he has demonstrated immense belief in our judiciary by putting it to task in the past, which is a good sign.

The major challenge with him is that some Nigerians do not trust him as a man of character because of his endless defection from one party to another. Also, corruption allegation is another issue: there are still unanswered questions about the Haliburton scandal. However, apart from Buhari, if there is any other candidate capable of dislodging the PDP now, it’s Atiku. Apart from the reasons above, he against a Jonathan portends a far less combustible contest.

If there is an aspirant that basking in the blaze of glory for his very visible achievement in office as a political Chief-Executive, it is Rabiu Kwankwaso. He has transformed Kano State in ways never before since Audu Bako in the sixties; and within just four years. He embodies the Obama yes-we-can slogan. But Nigerian politics is more than just that. Parties have yet to be known to take a candidate on “the shoulders” into victory where such a person does not have own structures across the country. Kwankwaso does not appear to have it. In fact is it is candidates that carry the parties on their shoulder.

Sam Nda-Isaiah is a newspaper proprietor who built his enterprise to an enviable height. He is also an incisive and progressive commentator on national issues. What he is capable of bringing to the table is an option for all who are tired of politicians that we have seen so far: he is a new-breed. But there again is the problem. He is yet to cultivate his political field; except of course if he’s got some grounded patrons. But with the cry for the presidency to come to the north, a northern Christian, like Nda-Isaiah, can provide the needed modicum of appeal across board to douse the sectarian flames.

As for Rochas Okorocha, inspite of his achievements as governor of Imo State, his philanthropy and inroads across the length and breadth of the country, the time simply does not appear right for him. Even if APC fields him as a better accepted candidate, from the south, to the north than Jonathan, he is unlikely to beat PDP.

BLUEPRINT Newspaper; Dec. 11, 2014; p5.